The U.S. economy has had a strong year and should keep growing next year, said analysts at FTR Transportation Intelligence, noting the caveat that growth leans heavily on artificial intelligence investment and that the policy backdrop for trucking is uncertain.
“It’s really been a pretty good year, and we think this can continue into the next year, maybe with some moderation, but without severe problems on any count,” said Bill Witte, chief forecaster at Witte Econometrics, during FTR’s State of Freight webinar on Thursday.
Witte estimated that real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from a 2.4% average in the first half of the year. Over the past four quarters, growth averaged about 2.1%.
Q3 strength came from consumption (up 2.6%), investment (up 1.9%), government spending (up 0.9%) and a swing in inventories (up1.4%). Net exports were a big drag (down 3.7%).
The quarter was “unsustainably strong,” Witte said, projecting that growth will average about 2.6% from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the third quarter of 2027, then settle near the economy’s long-run potential of 2.2% to 2.3%.
FTR estimates job growth of about 100,000 a month in the near term. It expects that to ease to 80,000 or 90,000 a month as high immigration levels from 2020 have reversed. Witte noted that figure “could be an optimistic view.”
Unemployment is 4.1% and is forecasted to drive toward 4%, Witte noted.
Avery Vise, VP of trucking at FTR, said goods inflation reaccelerated around March, driven by gasoline. Gas is “one of the few things where the price is literally on billboards as you drive down the road,” Vise said, which could squeeze consumer spending.
Diesel is the more direct hit to the industry. FTR indicated the national diesel price averaged above $5.50 a gallon in the third quarter. The firm’s Jan. 1 forecast had it near $3.65.
Vise said FTR still expects it to be roughly 40% higher at the end of 2027 than that January forecast. That means prices aren’t going back to February levels soon, even if the Middle East conflict improves.
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AI spending
AI-related spending remains a concern, a point that Vise has emphasized over the past year. Inflation-adjusted data center construction has climbed to about $50 billion at an annual rate, well above general office construction, which has declined since the pandemic.
Computer and electronic orders, wholesale sales and imports of computers and parts have all surged. Imports of computers and parts reached nearly $80 billion on a customs-value basis.
AI-related investment contributed about 0.7 points to Q3 growth, compared to an average of 0.04 points from 2017 through 2023.
“We’ve become quite dependent on this in terms of growth, and it is a concern,” Vise said.
FTR projects flatbed loadings to be up about 4.5% in 2026, mostly because of AI-related spending, along with servers and semiconductors adding to dry van and reefer volume.
Vise noted that many AI-related goods are high-value and take up relatively little space, so they generate less freight volume than their dollar value might suggest.
Election raises regulatory risk
The election raises the possibility of more trucking regulation, Vise said, as the new makeup of Congress could suggest measures like increasing trucking companies’ minimum insurance coverage from $750,000 to about $5 million, indexed to inflation.
Regulations on speed limiters and stronger trailer underride guards are also possible. He said he sees no chance of relaxed hours-of-service or size and weight rules.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx rule also remains in limbo, the analysts pointed out. Although the agency proposed changes in July, the final rule had not reached the White House as of the webinar, despite the Jan. 1 effective date. The uncertainty leaves OEMs unable to give fleets firm prices.
“A lot of fleets are probably like, ‘well, I really don’t want to put in an order if you can’t give me an idea of how much it’s going to cost,’” Vise said.
The delay, along with the driver shortage concern, could hold back fleet orders and equipment additions.
