Though the transportation market was largely stagnant in 2025, signs indicate a gradual recovery rather than a complete rebound in 2026, according to DAT Freight & Analytics’ recent report.
For three-and-a-half years, the truckload market has remained persistently inverted,with spot rates trailing contract rates, according to the Freight Focus: Transportation & Logistics Outlook report.
The initial year of this inversion was represented by a correction from the pandemic, as both spot and contract rates retreated at roughly the same rate it had climbed between 2020 and 2022. Following this correction, contract rates have remained essentially flat, while spot rates have crept upward at a glacial pace.
Looking back over the year, the report noted that in the dry van market, the Port of Los Angeles in June saw unprecedented container volumes as shippers rushed imports to beat anticipated tariff hikes. This surge reversed in September when import activity dropped to its weakest point since 2023.
The refrigerated freight sector saw meaningful changes driven by agricultural patterns, according to the report. For instance, potato shipments from Washington and Oregon declined as demand for processed potato products softened.
Overall, reefer capacity remained abundant, available to meet demand.
Meanwhile, flatbed activity correlated strongly with construction trends, the report noted. On the residential side, purchases of lumber and construction fluctuated as homeowners delayed remodeling projects due to economic uncertainty.
Additionally, the report noted the rise of data center construction, which provided a significant lift for flatbed carriers. Since ChatGPT launched in 2022, annual U.S. data center construction spending has tripled to roughly $41 billion annually.
“This growth boosts flatbed demand,” the report said.
DAT noted that flatbed spot rates now exceed both 2024 levels and the strong industrial economy of 2017 by 3%, though the flatbed contract market has been down year over year.
“AI data centers are typically located outside city centers and involve a massive influx of materials and equipment, such as cranes. That leads to an equally massive deadhead on the way out, so these hauls tend to be handled transactionally on the spot market,” the report explained.
The contrast between the thriving flatbed spot market and modest contract market performance will likely continue if data center construction continues its current trajectory, which could be considerable.
A gradual recovery or a complete rebound?
Indicators suggest the market will continue to experience a “gradual recovery rather than a complete rebound in 2026,” the report noted, barring unforeseen disruptions.
With inventory levels high and tariff-driven price increases likely to constrain consumer spending, trucking demand shows no robust growth signals, it said.
On the capacity side, while carrier exits have increased in 2025, this has not removed enough capacity to shift market dynamics. Stricter enforcement of English Language Proficiency rules is sidelining a few thousand drivers, but the nationwide impact remains limited.
Truckload volumes track closely with the U.S. domestic manufacturing survey, which the report noted showed promise until tariffs on major trading partners were introduced in April. Since then, truckload demand has weakened.
Manufacturing data, according to the October 2025 PMI report, revealed a lack of demand in nearly every category in the sector, with customers canceling or pulling back orders due to economic uncertainty.
“The direct consequence for the trucking industry is sustained low freight volume and persistent downward pressure on dry van spot market rates,” the report said.
Retail activity and consumer spending also remain resilient, with Federal Reserve data showing monthly gains in personal consumption expenditures throughout 2025 and inflation moderating 2.4% in November. However, employment conditions are softening, and consumer confidence continues to decline.
Operating in the market requires simultaneous planning, the report pointed out, which includes managing headwinds while aggressively leveraging opportunities.
For carriers, the report offered several strategies, including managing cash flow and fuel costs, adopting technology, and improving driver retention through competitive pay and benefits.
